4th CAFE WORKSHOP
In-person at ECMWF, Reading, UK | 29-31 March 2022
Workshop description
This is the fourth workshop of the Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes (CAFE) project.
This workshop will include keynote presentations on a variety of aspects related to sub-seasonal forecasting and its applications. There will also be a focus on soft skills with activities to develop these.
This workshop is part of the ongoing activities of the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Innovation Training Network (ITN).
Attendance
There is a free admission policy to the scientific sessions within the limits of available places. Please complete the registration form if you are interested in attending one or several sessions.
COVID Procedures
The workshop will be held in person in Reading, UK. ECMWF has put in place a number of COVID Health and Safetly measures to reduce the risk of transmission in the workplace to the lowest practicable level making ECMWF a safe place to work.
ECMWF requires all persons on site to provide proof of vaccination (minimum 2 doses), proof of recovery from COVID or evidence of a negative COVID Lateral Flow Test conducted in the preceding 24 hours to access the site.
All participants are required to sign a copy of the ‘COVID-19 Site Health and Safety Procedures’ prior to arrival or on arrival at Shinfield Park.
Contact us at cafeproject@crm.cat.
TIMETABLE
Time (BST/ UTC + 1)
Tuesday, 29 March
09:00 → 09:15 | Welcome and registration for in-person attendees
09:15 | Zoom opens for virtual attendees
09:20 → 09:30 | Welcome and housekeeping
Presenters: Florian Pappenberger and Becky Hemingway (ECMWF)
09:30 → 12:00 | Perspective on the peer-review process as a journal editor and discussion
12:00 → 13:00 | ESR presentations
12:00 | Heatwaves over Europe: Connection to large-scale circulation and main climate drivers – Emmanuel Rouges (ECMWF)
12:20 | Combined influence of ENSO and AAO on precipitation in Southeastern South America – Xinjia Hu (Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems)
12:40 | A Complex Network approach for understanding Climate Extremes – Shraddha Gupta (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
13:00 → 13:50 | Lunch
13:50 → 13:55 | Group Photo for those in person (by ducks)
13:55 → 14:00 | Group Photo for those in Zoom (virtually)
14:00 → 15:30 | Panel discussion on Methods for teleconnection detection
15:30 → 16:30 | ESR presentations (1h)
15:30 | Predictability and MJO influence on the forecast skill of long-lived RWPs in the Southern Hemisphere summer in the NCEP S2S subseasonal model – Iago Perez (Universidad de la República, Uruguay)
15:50 | Percolation based precursors for sudden shifts in the dynamics of coupled oscillators with applications to ENSO and Sudden Stratospheric Warmings – Noemie Ehstand (IFISC (UIB-CSIC))
16:10 | Extreme Value Analysis of MJO – Monica Minjares (Centre de Recerca Matemàtica)
18:00 → 20:00 | Social Event – organised by ESRs (only for in-person attendees)
Wednesday, 30 March
09:30 → 11:30 | Machine Learning workshop
11:30 → 12:30 | ESR presentations
11:30 | Identifying relevant large-scale predictors for sub-seasonal precipitation forecast using explainable neural networks – Niclas Rieger (Centre de Recerca Matemàtica)
11:50 | Ensemble forecast of the Madden Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on analogs of Z500 – Meriem Krouma (ARIA Technologies)
12:10 | Improving the prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation of the ECMWF model by post-processing – Riccardo Silini (Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya)
12:30 → 13:00 | Machine Learning workshop continues
13:00 → 14:00 | Lunch
14:00 → 16:30 | Machine Learning workshop continues
19:00 | Workshop dinner
Thursday, 31 March
10:00 → 11:30 | ESR presentations
10:00 | Large-scale atmospheric circulations and their influence on dry days: Present and future – Pedro Herrera Lormendez (TU Bergakademie Freiberg)
10:20 | Quantifying CMIP6 model uncertainties in extreme precipitation projections – Amal John (MÉTÉO-FRANCE)
10:40 | Forecasting extreme precipitation in Calabria: shifting predictor strength with prediction lead time – Nikos Mastrantonas (ECMWF)
11:00 | General Discussion
11:30 → 11:45 | Coffee Break
11:45 → 13:00 | Project discussion and planning for final conference
13:00 → 14:00 | Lunch
15:30 | Supervisor board meeting (by invitation only)
15:30 → 17:30| ECMWF Tour
15:45 | Computer Hall Tour – Andy Gundry
16:30 | Weather Room
Friday, 1 April
09:00 → 16:00 | Social Activity
SPEAKERS

Becky Hemingway
User Outreach and Engagement Officer ECMWF and Co-Editor in Chief of Atmospheric Science Letters RMetS

Hannah Cloke
Professor of Hydrology at University of Reading