4th CAFE Workshop


In-person at ECMWF, Reading, UK | 29-31 March 2022

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Workshop description

This is the fourth workshop of the Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes (CAFE) project.

This workshop will include keynote presentations on a variety of aspects related to sub-seasonal forecasting and its applications. There will also be a focus on soft skills with activities to develop these.

This workshop is part of the ongoing activities of the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Innovation Training Network (ITN).



There is a free admission policy to the scientific sessions within the limits of available places. Please complete the registration form if you are interested in attending one or several sessions.


COVID Procedures

The workshop will be held in person in Reading, UK. ECMWF has put in place a number of COVID Health and Safetly measures to reduce the risk of transmission in the workplace to the lowest practicable level making ECMWF a safe place to work.

ECMWF requires all persons on site to provide proof of vaccination (minimum 2 doses), proof of recovery from COVID or evidence of a negative COVID Lateral Flow Test conducted in the preceding 24 hours to access the site.

All participants are required to sign a copy of the ‘COVID-19 Site Health and Safety Procedures’ prior to arrival or on arrival at Shinfield Park.

Contact us at cafeproject@crm.cat.


Time (BST/ UTC + 1)

Tuesday, 29 March

09:00 → 09:15 |  Welcome and registration for in-person attendees

      09:15 | Zoom opens for virtual attendees

09:20 → 09:30 |  Welcome and housekeeping

Presenters: Florian Pappenberger and Becky Hemingway (ECMWF

09:30 → 12:00Perspective on the peer-review process as a journal editor and discussion

SpeakerBecky Hemingway (ECMWF

12:00 → 13:00 |  ESR presentations 

12:00 | Heatwaves over Europe: Connection to large-scale circulation and main climate drivers – Emmanuel Rouges (ECMWF)

12:20 | Combined influence of ENSO and AAO on precipitation in Southeastern South America – Xinjia Hu (Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems)

12:40 | A Complex Network approach for understanding Climate Extremes – Shraddha Gupta (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

13:00 → 13:50Lunch 

13:50 → 13:55 |  Group Photo for those in person (by ducks)

13:55 → 14:00 |  Group Photo for those in Zoom (virtually)

14:00 → 15:30Panel discussion on Methods for teleconnection detection 

15:30 → 16:30ESR presentations (1h)

15:30 |  Predictability and MJO influence on the forecast skill of long-lived RWPs in the Southern Hemisphere summer in the NCEP S2S subseasonal model – Iago Perez (Universidad de la República, Uruguay)

15:50 | Percolation based precursors for sudden shifts in the dynamics of coupled oscillators with applications to ENSO and Sudden Stratospheric Warmings – Noemie Ehstand (IFISC (UIB-CSIC))

16:10 | Extreme Value Analysis of MJO – Monica Minjares (Centre de Recerca Matemàtica)

18:00 → 20:00Social Event – organised by ESRs (only for in-person attendees)



Wednesday, 30 March

09:30 → 11:30Machine Learning workshop

11:30 → 12:30 |  ESR presentations 

11:30 | Identifying relevant large-scale predictors for sub-seasonal precipitation forecast using explainable neural networks – Niclas Rieger (Centre de Recerca Matemàtica)

11:50 | Ensemble forecast of the Madden Julian Oscillation using a stochastic weather generator based on analogs of Z500 – Meriem Krouma (ARIA Technologies)

12:10 | Improving the prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation of the ECMWF model by post-processing – Riccardo Silini (Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya)

12:30 → 13:00 |  Machine Learning workshop continues

13:00 → 14:00Lunch 

14:00 → 16:30 |  Machine Learning workshop continues

                19:00 | Workshop dinner 



Thursday, 31 March

10:00 → 11:30 |  ESR presentations 

10:00 | Large-scale atmospheric circulations and their influence on dry days: Present and future – Pedro Herrera Lormendez (TU Bergakademie Freiberg)

10:20 | Quantifying CMIP6 model uncertainties in extreme precipitation projections – Amal John (MÉTÉO-FRANCE)

10:40 | Forecasting extreme precipitation in Calabria: shifting predictor strength with prediction lead time – Nikos Mastrantonas (ECMWF)

11:00 | General Discussion

11:30 → 11:45 | Coffee Break

11:45 → 13:00 |  Project discussion and planning for final conference 

13:00 → 14:00 | Lunch

14:00 → 15:30Experiences in science communication followed by group discussion
SpeakerHannah Cloke (University of Reading

                15:30 |  Supervisor board meeting (by invitation only)

15:30 → 17:30|  ECMWF Tour

                             15:45 | Computer Hall Tour – Andy Gundry

                             16:30 | Weather Room


Friday, 1 April

09:00 → 16:00 |  Social Activity 


Becky Hemingway

User Outreach and Engagement Officer ECMWF and Co-Editor in Chief of Atmospheric Science Letters RMetS

Hannah Cloke

Professor of Hydrology at University of Reading