Atmospheric Processes Relevant to sub-Seasonal Predictability

Atmospheric Processes Relevant to sub-Seasonal Predictability

Prof. Marcelo Barreiro.

Friday 22nd from 15:30 to 19:00


Sub-seasonal prediction covers the gap between medium range (1-10 days) weather forecast and seasonal forecast (3 months mean). It also bridges planetary scale phenomena such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation with local daily weather fluctuations. Up to recent years this range was considered a predictability desert. However, in  the last decade it has become evident that we can take advantage of the existence of climate phenomena that are predictable on 10-90 days time scale to produce sub-seasonal forecasts.
In these lectures we will focus on understanding the sources of sub-seasonal to seasonal predictability. In particular, we will cover atmospheric processes including the Madden-Julian Oscillation as well as long-living Rossby waves and blocking. Other contributing processes such as the impact of soil moisture, snow cover, surface ocean conditions and stratosphere-troposphere interaction will be mentioned.
Course Materials