ESR’s projects ongoing

In order to advance sub-seasonal predictability of extreme events, it is crucial to train a new kind of interdisciplinary top-level researchers. The CAFE: Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes covers all the main features of Atmospheric and oceanic processes, Extreme events and Tools for predictability, and aims at developing to improve the predictions by merging expertise in different fields, as well as ensure translation to users, through the participation of government agencies and industry.

Multidisciplinary and academia-industry interaction will be fostered by the provision that students’ theses will have to be supervised by scientists in more than one institution. These young researchers will be given top-level training not only by their respective universities, but more specifically through a thorough programme organised by the consortium. The CAFE Programme encourages researchers to gain experience in different working environments, while developing transferable skills, such as speaking in public, science communication, or innovation management.

ESR1: Rossby wave packets and their role in atmospheric predictability.

Objectives: To study how the spatiotemporal coherence, length and duration of Rossby wave packets are controlled by the large-scale environment. Also, to analyse the limit of predictability that Rossby wave packets can provide.

Early Stage Researcher:  Iago Pérez. 

Supervisors: Prof. Marcelo Barreiro (Universidad de la República) and Prof. Cristina Masoller (Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya).

HostUniversidad de la República, Montevideo, Uruguay.

Mónica Minjares

ESR2: Statistical laws for Madden-Julian events.

Objectives: To characterize the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events in terms of the statistical properties of their lifetime, amplitude and energy. Also, to quantify the influence of climatic factors on these statistical properties and develop a simple model of the MJO as an activation process in order to evaluate its predictability.

Early Stage Researcher:  Mónica Minjares.

Supervisors: Dr. Álvaro Corral (Centre de Recerca Matemàtica) and Prof. Marcelo Barreiro (Universidad de la República).

Host: Centre de Recerca Matemàtica, Barcelona, Spain.

Noémie Ehstand

ESR3: Coherent structures in sub-seasonal-scale circulations.

Objectives: To develop a series of diagnosis tools able to identify and track changes in atmospheric circulation associated with particular events which are known to be relevant for predictability at sub-seasonal scales, specially moving convection structures associated to the Madden-Julian Oscillation but also blockings and waves, as well as their oceanic counterparts.

Early Stage Researcher:  Noémie Ehstand.

Supervisors: Prof. Emilio Hernández-García (Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos – Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas).

Host: Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas – Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos, Palma de Mallorca, Spain.

Pedro Herrera Lormendez

ESR4: Identification of changes in large-scale weather patterns (Grosswetterlagen) in Europe.

Objectives: To analyse weather patterns and their temporal succession. Also, to detect variations due to climate change and validate the hypothesis that changes in the temporal structure of patterns introduce new climatic phenomena such as April-summer and arctic-February in Germany. In addition, to quantify changes in the way how different weather patterns follow each other as well as typical lifetimes of a given pattern and typical sequences of different patterns. Relation with extreme events at sub-seasonal time scale and predictability.

Early Stage Researcher:  Pedro Herrera Lormendez.  

Supervisors: Prof. Jörg Matschullat (Technische Universitaet Bergakademie Freiberg) and Dr. Hervé Douville (Météo-France).

Host: Technische Universitaet Bergakademie Freiberg, Freiberg, Germany.

ESR5: Improving data-based forecasts of ENSO-related extreme weather anomalies on lead times of several months.

Objectives: To analyze regional distributions of daily meteorological variables per season in relevant regions of the globe in order to establish correlations between extreme meteorological anomalies potentially causing losses (at least, temperature and precipitation) and an adequate oceanic-index of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Early Stage Researcher:  Xinjia Hu.

Supervisors: Prof. Holger Kantz (Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems) and Dr. Eberhard Faust (Munich Re).

Host: Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden, Germany.

Emmanuel Rouges

ESR6: Extreme weather situations and cascade effects based on European climate patterns.

Objectives: To evaluate links between large-scale weather patterns and severe warm events over Europe on sub-seasonal time scale and, also, to measure current level of predictive skill. In addition, to validate the hypothesis that there are follow-up events (cascades, for example, heatwaves preceding droughts) and to evaluate the effects of a non-stationary climate on the statistics of extreme weather.

Early Stage ResearcherEmmanuel Rouges.

Supervisors: Prof. Holger Kantz (Max Planck Institute for the Physics
of Complex Systems) and Dr. Laura Ferranti (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts).

: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK.

Riccardo Silini

ESR7: Assessment of seasonal and sub-seasonal variability of stochastic properties of atmospheric extreme events.

Objectives: To determinate the key parameters affecting the stochastic properties of severe atmospheric events (winter extratropical cyclones, hurricanes, typhoons among others) and to estimate annual exceedance probabilities for various event intensities.

Early Stage ResearcherRiccardo Silini.

Supervisors: Prof. Cristina Masoller (Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya) and Prof. Marcelo Barreiro (Universidad de la República).

Host: Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain.

ESR8: Scaling of extreme weather events with stabilized global mean temperature: methodological and modeling uncertainties.

Objectives: To assess the response of extreme weather events for different levels of stabilized global warming, its sensitivity to the experiment design and its amplitude compared to the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Madden-Julian Oscillation variability.

Early Stage Researcher: Amal John.

Supervisors: Dr. Hervé Douville (Météo-France) and Dr. Pascal Yiou (Commissariat à l’énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives).

Host: Météo-France, Toulouse, France.

Shraddha Gupta

ESR9: Multi-layer networks for sub-seasonal prediction.

Objectives: To combine event synchronization and multi-layer networks reconstructed from multivariate observational and model data in order to explore the predictability of climate regime changes on the sub-seasonal scale.

Early Stage ResearcherShraddha Gupta.

Supervisors: Prof. Jürgen Kurths (Potsdam Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung) and Dr. Florian Pappenberger (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts).

Host: Potsdam Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung, Berlin, Germany.

Niclas Rieger

ESR10: Sub-seasonal forecasting of extreme precipitation events using sea surface salinity and other sea surface variables as predictors.

Objectives: To explore different strategies of statistical analysis, from classical methods such as empirical orthogonal functions to more advanced strategies as multi-linear regression and multi-fractal analysis, in order to derive dynamic associations among key variables of the hydrological cycle from ocean to land, especially for extreme events.

Early Stage Researcher: Niclas Rieger.

Supervisors: Dr. Álvaro Corral (Centre de Recerca Matemàtica) and Dr. Antonio Turiel (Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas – Institut de Ciències del Mar).

Host: Centre de Recerca Matemàtica, Barcelona, Spain.

Nikolaos Mastrantonas

ESR11: Predictability of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns over the Mediterranean connected to extreme weather.

Objectives: To reach a better understanding of the predictability of large-scale flows patterns over the Mediterranean in sub-seasonal (monthly) forecasts, and its connection to extreme weather.

Early Stage Researcher: Nikolaos Mastrantonas.

Supervisors: Prof. Jörg Matschullat (Technische Universitaet Bergakademie Freiberg) and Dr. Linus Magnusson (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts).

Host: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK.

Meriem Krouma

ESR12: Ensemble weather predictability with stochastic weather generator based on analogues of circulation.

Objectives: To explore the conditions of predictability of regional surface meteorological variables (temperature, precipitation) with stochastic weather generator of analogues of atmospheric circulation.

Early Stage Researcher: Meriem Krouma.

Supervisors: Dr. Pascal Yiou (Commissariat à l’énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives) and Dr. Céline Déandreis (ARIA Technologies).

Host: Aria Technologies, Paris, France.