Subseasonal Predictions and Verification

Subseasonal Predictions and Verification

Dr. Laura Ferranti

Friday 21st from 14:00 to 18:30.

Abstract

The lectures will introduce:

  • the sub-seasonal ensemble predictions: bridging the gap between weather and climate
  • standard methods of ensemble verification and conditional skill

After the lectures you should be able to explain:

  • the current skill of sub-seasonal predictions
  • why we use ensemble predictions
  • the difference between skill and predictability
  • what a reliable probabilistic forecast is and how to measure reliability
  • why resolution and sharpness of a probabilistic forecast matter
  • how to compute some standard verification metrics used for ensemble forecasts
Course Materials

Slides (Part I)

Slides (Part II)