Subseasonal Predictions and Verification
Dr. Laura Ferranti
Friday 21st from 14:00 to 18:30.
Abstract
The lectures will introduce:
- the sub-seasonal ensemble predictions: bridging the gap between weather and climate
- standard methods of ensemble verification and conditional skill
After the lectures you should be able to explain:
- the current skill of sub-seasonal predictions
- why we use ensemble predictions
- the difference between skill and predictability
- what a reliable probabilistic forecast is and how to measure reliability
- why resolution and sharpness of a probabilistic forecast matter
- how to compute some standard verification metrics used for ensemble forecasts