Understanding and modeling weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities for science and society
Dr. Jana Sillmann / Research Director, CICERO
One of today’s major challenges in climate sciences is how to use our state-of-the-art models and climate system knowledge to inform decision making regarding societal responses to climate change. Among the five key reasons for concern, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are the risks from weather and climate extremes. Severe impacts could be prevented or alleviated through appropriate adaptation measures and better preparedness including better forecast of extreme events.
Weather and climate extremes are influenced by a complex interplay of natural and anthropogenic factors that determine their occurrence, frequency, and intensity. Uncertainties arise due to near- and long-term variability and changes in weather and climate extremes caused by global warming. The presentation will give some insights in scientific knowledge about weather and climate extremes as assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and how they relate to a broader risk perspective. Different approaches to provide impact-relevant information on changes in weather and climate extremes will be presented, which involves, for instance, finding appropriated indicators and incorporating process understanding in the modeling of extreme events.