CAFE Video Library

CAFE VIDEO LIBRARY

CAFE Climate Extremes Project

CAFE is a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network. The project consortium is formed by ten international partners recruiting, hosting and training researchers.

Climate extremes such as heat waves or tropical storms have huge social and economic impact. The forecasting of such extreme events at the sub-seasonal time scale (from 10 days to 3 months) is challenging. Since the atmosphere and the ocean are coupled systems of enormous complexity, in order to advance sub-seasonal predictability of extreme events, it is crucial to train a new kind of interdisciplinary top-level researchers.

‘The last round of CAFE’, final video of the Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes project, focused on its outcomes and impact.

CAFE is a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network. The project consortium is formed by ten international partners recruiting, hosting and training researchers.

The ultimate goal of the CAFE project is to improve the sub-seasonal predictability of extreme weather events through the interdisciplinary training of 12 ESRs in aspects such as climate science, complex networks and data analysis. Climate extremes such as heat waves, drought, extreme precipitation or cold surges have huge social and economic impacts that are expected to increase with climate change. Forecasting of such extreme events on the sub-seasonal time scale (from 10 days to about 3 months) is very challenging because of the poor understanding of phenomena that may increase predictability at this time scale, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, planetary waves and atmospheric blockings. Reliable sub-seasonal climate information is of great importance, allowing for early warnings and adequate mitigation strategies. The World Meteorological Organization World Weather Research Programme and World Climate Research Programme acknowledge the importance of sub-seasonal forecasts by running the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Project.
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Twitter: @CAFE_S2SExtrem
www.cafes2se-itn.eu

The Last Round of CAFE

Improving data-based forecasts of ENSO-related extreme weather anomalies

Predictability of large-scale atmospheric flow patterns over the Mediterranean

Ensemble weather predictability with stochastic weather generator based on analogues of circulation

Extreme weather situations and cascade effects based on European climate patterns

Margarida L.R. Liberato | UTAD

Intense midlatitude cyclones are often associated with weather and climate extremes, in terms of strong winds, storm surges, heavy precipitation and/or flooding. The occurrence of extreme winter storms is considered as one of the major natural catastrophes in the extratropics, being one of the costliest natural hazards in Europe, responsible for substantial socioeconomic damages and fatalities. In this work we revisit the synoptic evolution, underlying dynamics and the main impacts of storm Xynthia (26–28 February 2010), whose genesis, explosive development and SW-NE trajectory were uncommon over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean.

Storm Xynthia was first identified on 25 February over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. Its genesis occurred on a region characterized by warm and moist air under the influence of a strong upper level wave embedded in the westerlies. The rapid cyclone intensification was favoured by diabatic processes and the location of the jet stream, which was vertically aligned with the trajectory of Xynthia. The role of moist, warm air masses on the explosive development of Xynthia is analysed by considering the moisture transport associated with the presence of an atmospheric river during the cyclone development phase and an SST anomaly exceeding the climatological standard deviation by a factor of 2. The cyclone followed an unusual SW– NE path towards Iberia, France and central Europe. Xynthia is only compared to a historical event that hit the Iberian Peninsula on February 15, 1941 – considered one of the most severe windstorms across Europe in the 20th century, from an impact perspective.

Storm Xynthia is a striking example of forecast uncertainty. Xynthia’s predictability was poor over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean and, particularly, along the western Iberian coast and over the Cantabrian Sea. Forecast uncertainty occurred in terms of the cyclone track, intensification, and hurricane force winds.

Understanding the relative roles of diabatic and baroclinic processes to the explosive deepening of these more southern, extreme extratropical cyclones is essential to improve forecasting of such compound weather and climate events under global warming conditions.
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Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes CAFE is a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network. The project consortium is formed by ten international partners recruiting, hosting and training researchers. http://www.cafes2se-itn.eu/

Storms’ explosive development in the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean

Milan Paluš | ICS CzechAcademy of Sciences<br /><br />The mathematical formulation of causality in measurable terms of predictability was given by the father of cybernetics N. Wiener [1] and formulated for time series by C.W.J. Granger [2]. The Granger causality is based on the evaluation of predictability in bivariate autoregressive models. This concept has been generalized for nonlinear systems using methods rooted in information theory [3,4]. The information-theoretic approach, defining causality as information transfer, has been successful in many applications and generalized to multivariate data and causal networks [e.g., 5]. This approach, rooted in the information theory of Shannon, usually ignores two important properties of complex systems, such as the Earth climate: the systems evolve on multiple time scales and their variables have heavy-tailed probability distributions. While the multiscale character of complex dynamics, such as air temperature variability, can be studied within the Shannonian framework [6, 7], the entropy concepts of Rényi and Tsallis have been proposed to cope with variables with heavy-tailed probability distributions. We will discuss how such non-Shannonian entropy concepts can be applied in inference of causality in systems with heavy-tailed probability distributions and extreme events, using examples from the climate system. <br /><br />This study was supported by the Czech Academy of Sciences, Praemium Academiae awarded to M. Paluš. <br /><br />[1] N. Wiener, in: E. F. Beckenbach (Editor), Modern Mathematics for Engineers (McGraw-Hill, New York, 1956) <br />[2] C.W.J. Granger, Econometrica 37 (1969) 424 <br />[3] K. Hlaváčková-Schindler et al., Phys. Rep. 441 (2007) 1 <br />[4] M. Paluš, M. Vejmelka, Phys. Rev. E 75 (2007) 056211 <br />[5] J. Runge et al., Nature Communications 6 (2015) 8502 <br />[6] M. Paluš, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112 (2014) 078702 [7] N. Jajcay, J. Hlinka, S. Kravtsov, A. A. Tsonis, M. Paluš, Geophys. Res. Lett. 43(2) (2016) 902–909

Causality and information transfer in systems with extreme events

Dim Coumou | VU Amsterdam and KNMI<br /><br />Jetstream dynamics behind boreal summer hot-dry extremes: Sources of S2S predictability and long-term climate risks <br /><br />To forecast heatwaves in boreal summer at seasonal to sub-seasonal (S2S) timescales, and to assess how global warming is likely to change such extremes, it is crucial to understand the behavior of the atmospheric Jetstream. While thermodynamic drivers behind extreme weather are well understood and reasonably well captured by climate models, we have much less confidence in how changes to atmospheric circulation affect extremes. Yet, the highest-impact extremes are often related to anomalous states in the hemispheric or regional scale circulation. Persistent circumglobal waves can induce concurrent extremes in far-away regions in the northern hemisphere in summer. Those waves can affect important breadbasket regions, including Europe, and therefore can impact global crop production by fueling multiple harvest failures. I will discuss different tropical and extra-tropical driving mechanisms and feedback processes that can maintain persistent, multi-week wave events. Moreover, I will show that advanced data science methods like explainable AI or causal discovery algorithms can enhance prediction skill at S2S timescales, and shed light on the sources of predictability. Both tropical convection and extra-tropical atmosphere-ocean interactions and regional soil-moisture are important sources of predictability, that can be well explained by known physical processes. In the second part of my talk, I will address how climate change is likely to affect (or potentially already has been affecting) mid-latitude circulation in boreal summer, including the role of the Arctic. Relevant literature<br /><br />_______________________ <br />Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes CAFE is a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network. The project consortium is formed by ten international partners recruiting, hosting and training researchers. http://www.cafes2se-itn.eu/

Jetstream dynamics behind boreal summer hot-dry extremes

with Marcelo Barreiro ( Universidad de la República), Ileana Bladé (UB), Emilio Hernández-García (IFISC-CSIC), and Cristina Masoller (UPC),

moderated by Daniel Ramos, CRM
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Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes CAFE is a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network. The project consortium is formed by ten international partners recruiting, hosting and training researchers. http://www.cafes2se-itn.eu/

Round Table: Nuevos métodos enmeteorología y climatología

Iago Pérez | Universidad de la República

Los paquetes de Ondas de Rossby son meandros, desviaciones de la corriente en chorro que se propagan en la parte superior de la atmósfera. Estos meandros influyen en la aparición de eventos meteorológicos como olas de calor, ciclones extratropicales u olas de frio. En ocasiones, estos meandros pueden llegar a durar hasta 2-3 semanas en la atmósfera antes de disiparse, cruzando grandes distancias en el proceso. En esta charla veremos cómo se estudian estas ondas, y cómo esto nos sirve para mejorar la detección de eventos meteorológicos intensos entre 10-30 días antes de que ocurran.
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Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes CAFE is a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network. The project consortium is formed by ten international partners recruiting, hosting and training researchers. http://www.cafes2se-itn.eu/

Predicción de eventos meteorológicos extremos mediante rastreo de paquetes de Ondas de Rossby

Mónica Minjares | CRM

Las imágenes satelitales nos han permitido analizar los cambios que se han llevado a cabo en el planeta a lo largo de nuestra historia reciente. Desde las primeras imágenes estáticas con ruido de hace 65 años, hasta las modernas combinaciones de distintas técnicas de visualización para obtener imágenes de interpretación inmediata. Las imágenes satelitales han extendido su uso desde planeación urbana, detección de ecosistemas, oceanografía, meteorología, entre otras disciplinas. Como ejemplo importante tenemos el registro de la temperatura global que nos ha permitido estudiar el calentamiento global así como eventos extremos como las olas de calor, que pueden derivar en sequías e incendios forestales, entre otros. Las imágenes satelitales pueden ayudar en la predicción de eventos climáticos extremos así como en la prevención de desastres en zonas de riesgo.
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Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes CAFE is a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network. The project consortium is formed by ten international partners recruiting, hosting and training researchers. http://www.cafes2se-itn.eu/

El uso de imágenes satelitales en el estudio de eventos climáticos extremos

Noémie Ehstand | IFISC-CSIC

Los sistemas dinámicos complejos como los ecosistemas, el cerebro o el clima pueden experimentar ocasionalmente grandes, repentinos e inesperados cambios de estado. Por ejemplo, cuando el agua de un lago cambia rápidamente de clara a turbia; o cuando la actividad eléctrica del cerebro cambia súbitamente provocando un ataque de epilepsia; o también, a escalas más grandes, cuando la Tierra pasa de un período glacial al actual clima templado. Sorprendentemente, a pesar de la disparidad de estos fenómenos todos presentan propiedades genéricas comunes cuando se aproximan a una transición. En esta charla hablaremos de estas propiedades y veremos cómo se pueden utilizar para detectar señales tempranas de alarma que nos indicarán si el sistema está cerca de “un cambio catastrófico”. Finalmente, discutiremos las aplicaciones más recientes de estas ideas en el campo del clima y de la predicción meteorológica.
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Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes CAFE is a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network. The project consortium is formed by ten international partners recruiting, hosting and training researchers. http://www.cafes2se-itn.eu/

Señales tempranas de alarma en los ecosistemas y el clima

Estrella Olmedo | ICM

El ciclo del agua tiene una importancia fundamental para el clima en la Tierra. La medida de la salinidad de la superficie del mar es una herramienta muy útil para observar la dinámica de este ciclo y para cuantificar los cambios que puedan ocurrir en él. Esto es debido a que los valores de la salinidad se ven alterados tanto por la evaporación del agua del mar como por la ocurrencia de lluvia. Se explicarán las propiedades más relevantes del ciclo del agua y se comentarán resultados de investigación recientes que muestran la intensificación del ciclo del agua en los últimos años. Se discutirá la relación de este fenómeno con el cambio climático.

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Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes CAFE is a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network. The project consortium is formed by ten international partners recruiting, hosting and training researchers. http://www.cafes2se-itn.eu/

El ciclo del agua visto a través de la salinidad de la superficie del mar

Pedro Herrera Lormendez (TU Bergakademie Freiberg
), Niclas Rieger (CRM), Mónica Minjares (CRM), Iago Pérez (Universidad de la República), Giulio Tirabassi (UPC)

moderated by Anna Drou, CRM
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Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes CAFE is a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network. The project consortium is formed by ten international partners recruiting, hosting and training researchers. http://www.cafes2se-itn.eu/

Round Table: ¿Qué hace un doctorando como tú en una red europea como esta? ¿Y después?

Luis G. Cutillas | AMAEM

The understanding of the future patterns of rainfall behaviour in singular geographical areas, with a marked specific character (largely determined by its orography) and local scale, as is the case of the city of Alicante (located in the southeast of Spain), will help to lay the foundations for a new precipitation model for the design of the main urban drainage infrastructures of the city (Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves, hereinafter IDF, for the short, medium and long term future), which will definitely contribute to the improvement of its resilience to the effects of Climate Change.

In this communication, using the Climadjust tool [climadjust.com], the projections of a subset of climate change models from both the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6; with a total of 5 simulations) and EURO-CORDEX (for a set of 51 simulations) are adjusted to the municipality of Alicante. These projections contain different climate variables. Precipitation and maximum, minimum and average temperatures have been used to obtain a new framework of boundary conditions to help design more resilient infrastructures. Projections corresponding to three climate change scenarios (CMIP6: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5; and EUROCORDEX: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are considered with daily and, by means of temporal disaggregation techniques, hourly resolution.

The adjustment of precipitation for the General Circulation Models (GCM) mentioned above is carried out using the historical data series recorded at the official observatory belonging to the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) of Ciudad Jardín in Alicante (38.37ºN, 0.49ºW), in the period from 1938-2021 (83 years). Temperature projections are made using the ERA5-Land reanalysis as a reference. Based on these historical series, bias adjustment techniques (EQM and ISIMIP3) are applied to obtain climate projections for the city. The results obtained after the application of the bias adjustment techniques on the climate projections with daily resolution show an increase in minimum, average and maximum temperatures, as well as a reduction in the number of rainy days in the city. Statistical time disaggregation techniques (using a cascade model) are then used to obtain hourly precipitation series and, from these, IDF curves of future climate. These IDF curves of future climate are grouped into short-term (years 2015 to 2040), medium-term (years 2041 to 2070) and long-term (years 2071 to 2100) projections.

A discussion on the selection of the models that best fit the climatic particularities of the municipality of Alicante is carried out by comparing the IDF curves of the present climate (historical series) with the analyzes carried out with the regionalized GCMs studied. In addition, a torrential precipitation index is calculated and projected to the future climate, what will allow determining the evolution of the rainfalls considered as torrential, in a local scale, under the previously described climate change hypotheses.

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Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes CAFE is a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Innovative Training Network. The project consortium is formed by ten international partners recruiting, hosting and training researchers. http://www.cafes2se-itn.eu/

Regionalisation of the Effects of Climate Change on Precipitation and Temperature Conditions

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