CAFE Blog
Progress in sub-seasonal forecasting of weather extremes (via ECMWF)
Sub-seasonal (also referred to as extended-range) prediction, looking about two weeks to one month ahead, can provide vital early warning of weather extremes and is a key area of research and operational interest. Improving forecasts of extreme events is also a key goal within ECMWF’s Strategy. We are ECMWF scientists working on sub-seasonal prediction of extreme weather events in Europe leveraging pattern-based forecasting, as part of the EU-funded Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes (CAFE) project. The four-year CAFE project is now drawing to a close and we share the main findings from our projects here.
How confident are we in our projections?
We all have experienced (or will experience) the intensity of an extreme meteorological weather event in our lives, for example, persistent high temperatures during a heatwave or intense rainfall due to the development of an extratropical cyclone. Even if these events do not appear very often, they cause severe human and economic losses in the areas they cross.
The Rossby Wave Packets
We all have experienced (or will experience) the intensity of an extreme meteorological weather event in our lives, for example, persistent high temperatures during a heatwave or intense rainfall due to the development of an extratropical cyclone. Even if these events do not appear very often, they cause severe human and economic losses in the areas they cross.
Entrevista de Predictia a Riccardo Silini, doctorando de CAFE
Entrevista a Riccardo Silini por parte de predictia, empresa que ofrece soluciones de minería y gestión de datos en el ámbito de la innovación, especialmente en los campos de clima y salud.
Changing atmospheric circulations in a warming climate
In recent decades, we humans have strongly influenced the behaviour of climate given the enormous amounts of “heat-trapping” gasses that we have emitted since the beginning of the industrial revolution. These greenhouse gasses have generated an increase in the Earth’s temperature and this has had an implication for the climate as we once knew it. More extreme meteorological events have become more common and they are expected to continue to affect us more strongly in the future. Why are these extreme events increasing and what causes them in the first place?
How can the Indian monsoon affect heatwaves in Europe?
The CAFE EU-funded project focuses on improving the prediction of extreme weather in the sub-seasonal range (2 weeks to 2 months). At this time range, including long lasting and far reaching processes is paramount to understand the drivers of meteorological phenomena and improve their prediction. My research within the CAFE project focuses on the prediction of heatwaves over Europe. In this short blog, I will be exploring the potential impact of the tropics on European heatwaves.