Communications

Communications

CAFE Blog

Progress in sub-seasonal forecasting of weather extremes (via ECMWF)

Sub-seasonal (also referred to as extended-range) prediction, looking about two weeks to one month ahead, can provide vital early warning of weather extremes and is a key area of research and operational interest. Improving forecasts of extreme events is also a key goal within ECMWF’s Strategy. We are ECMWF scientists working on sub-seasonal prediction of extreme weather events in Europe leveraging pattern-based forecasting, as part of the EU-funded Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes (CAFE) project. The four-year CAFE project is now drawing to a close and we share the main findings from our projects here.

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CAFE Blog

How confident are we in our projections?

We all have experienced (or will experience) the intensity of an extreme meteorological weather event in our lives, for example, persistent high temperatures during a heatwave or intense rainfall due to the development of an extratropical cyclone. Even if these events do not appear very often, they cause severe human and economic losses in the areas they cross.

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