Communications
Progress in sub-seasonal forecasting of weather extremes (via ECMWF)
Sub-seasonal (also referred to as extended-range) prediction, looking about two weeks to one month ahead, can provide vital early warning of weather extremes and is a key area of research and operational interest. Improving forecasts of extreme events is also a key goal within ECMWF’s Strategy. We are ECMWF scientists working on sub-seasonal prediction of extreme weather events in Europe leveraging pattern-based forecasting, as part of the EU-funded Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes (CAFE) project. The four-year CAFE project is now drawing to a close and we share the main findings from our projects here.
Scorching Europe: Record-breaking Heatwaves Raise Questions about Extreme Weather
Multiple heatwaves have been the focal point of the summer experienced in several countries across the European continent. Portugal and Spain, for example, have registered temperatures well over 40 ºC, and some governments have been forced to issue extreme weather notices in the face of draughts, raging wildfires and the rise in the number of heat-related deaths.
Review Article on the Role of Complex Systems in the Study of Climate Change by CAFE Researchers is Published and Featured
The review article ‘Perspectives on the importance of complex systems in understanding our climate and climate change – The Nobel Prize in Physics 2021’ by CAFE researchers Shraddha Gupta, Nikolaos Mastrantonas, Cristina Masoller and Jürgen Kurths has been published in Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science.
How confident are we in our projections?
We all have experienced (or will experience) the intensity of an extreme meteorological weather event in our lives, for example, persistent high temperatures during a heatwave or intense rainfall due to the development of an extratropical cyclone. Even if these events do not appear very often, they cause severe human and economic losses in the areas they cross.
The CAFE Project Helds its 4th Workshop in Reading (UK)
The 4th CAFE Workshop was held in person at ECMWF, Reading UK, from the 29th to the 31st of March.
ECMWF Director of Forecasts and CAFE Team Member Florian Pappenberger on the Early Warning and EarlyAction Theme
The ECMWF Director of Forecasts Florian Pappenberger considers how ECMWF’s global numerical weather predictions help to provide early warnings and early actions on the occasion of the World Meteorological Day 2022.